There’s a compelling case for dairy farmers to increase the use of dairy semen in their herds, especially in light of recent trends in replacement rates and the number of dairy females born this year.
As of 15th May, the number of calves registered from the dairy herd is over 28,000 lower than at the same time last year—a decline of around 2% (see Table 1). More concerning is the drop in dairy female calf registrations, which are down by over 45,000 compared to the same period in 2024. That’s a reduction of more than 12%, which is expected to result in far fewer replacement heifers available in 2027.
Additionally, the number of first-calved heifers recorded by 1st May is about 29,000 fewer than in 2024, representing a 9.5% drop (see Table 2). This combination (i.e. a sharp decline in both dairy female calves and first-calved heifers), suggests that the market for dairy heifers is likely to be very strong over the next few years.
Key Message:
There will be a shortage of dairy replacement in the national herd in 2027 unless we breed more dairy replacements. Dairy farmers are strongly encouraged to increase the number of dairy straws used in their herd this year.
Only 78% of dairy females born, calve down as 2-year old heifers, so for a 100 cow herd you’ll need to calve down 25 dairy females in order to achieve a 20% replacement rate. Also, in order to have some choice when selecting which females to keep, it’s advisable to target at least 30 dairy females.
Therefore at least 60 cows would need to be put in-calf to a dairy bull.